The Campaign Builder's Guild

Hello, I'm working on my world again (yay!).

But I've hit a snag with regard to populations. My setting is bronze-age, and largely wilderness/tribal, but there are a few cities and populated areas where I could really do with some numbers, both for in-city and for the surrounding rural area. Alas, my attempts at googling bronze-age census numbers didn't get me anything ;).

So what say you, CBG? Does anyone have a good way of estimating populations for non-medieval cities/lands? Sources are double-awesome.

http://www.lucidphoenix.com/dnd/demo/kingdom.asp
more medieval, but interesting

http://www.di2.nu/pop_sim.html
sf notations on same

Actually, the numbers from that should be relatively accurate. If they aren't you can calibrate from ancient Egypt, which does have decent estimates on population.

Quote from: Stargate525...you can calibrate from ancient Egypt, which does have decent estimates on population.

Where?  :o

http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_461511156_2/Ancient_Egypt.html
http://nefertiti.iwebland.com/people/index.html

As far as urban vs. rural populations, Colin McEvedy estimated that Megara - a fairly typical Greek city-state during the classical period - had a population of about 20,000, of which 3,000 at most lived in the city itself.  When you consider that classical era Greece was extremely urbanized compared to other surrounding cultures at the time, it gives you some idea of the huge disparity between rural and urban populations.  Persia, for instance, had fewer large cities than Greece at the same time, and it had a total population that was ahead of Greece's by orders of magnitude.  Urban centers may be important in a cultural, economic, or political sense, but in terms of population they will be dwarfed by rural regions.

In case you haven't seen, the Medieval Demographics Made Easy article may be very helpful to you in determining number of settlements and populations that are urban vs. rural.

Here you go: Historical_urban_community_sizes shows the numbers you want for a number of major cities of that (and other) periods. I ran across this a few days back while trying to find info on geographic size of medieval cities - I have a hard time believing that medieval London for instance was "no more than a mile or two across." Unfortunately, I have not been able to find what I was looking for - if you've seen good data in your search for populations on square mileage please let me know.

Quote from: Snargash MoonclawI have a hard time believing that medieval London for instance was "no more than a mile or two across."

Believe it. Anything bigger than that and you run into serious issues with sewage and simple storm drainage near the center.
 
Map with scale for proof: http://vrcoll.fa.pitt.edu/medart/image/England/london/Maps-of-London/London-Maps.html

Note that that is circa 1600, well into the renaissance, and it's still that small.

Wow, this is great. Thanks guys.

Thanks Stargate - that's the kind of reference I've been looking for. Trying to scale Salis Freeport runs a bit bigger - it's not super dense (no walls) and it's on both sides of the river - I hadn't realized that medieval London did not yet straddle the Thames. Storm flooding *is* a problem in the low reaches of Salis - the city scale runs a six mile stretch of river from the first to the last (3rd) bridge and about four miles out from either bank - although occupied territory extends a few miles beyond these loose boundaries. I'm conceiving the major metropolitan centers primarily on European high renaissance models, although I would like to include some other Asian models and a certain Byzantine quality should pervade all. . .

/swipe :D

Quote from: Snargash MoonclawHere you go: Historical_urban_community_sizes  

I'm not an expert on historical populations but these (specifically the Mediterranean/near east ones in the iron age and bronze age) seem inordinately high to me compared to what I've read elsewhere.  For example, inscriptions from the 9th century BC place Calah/Nimrud, the capital of Assyria, at 16,000 inhabitants; Wikipedia calls it "as many as 100,000" with no explanations.  In the 7th century, wikipedia says the Assyrian capital at that time, Niniveh, was 120,000, an incredible leap considering that Niniveh was certainly not more than 10 times the size of Calah.  Knossos is cited at 100,000, an estimate from 1950, while more modern estimates propose somewhere between 10 and 20 thousand, not a hundred thousand.  And I thought the "millon man Rome" position was pretty well discredited by now?

Ancient population numbers are notoriously unreliable since most were arrived at through guesswork - educated guesswork perhaps, but guesswork nonetheless.  Cities might be surrounded by thousands of people in rural villages and communities that supply the city itself and depend on it for protection and trade connections, but these aren't urban inhabitants.  Like Megara I cited earlier, the actual urban center was dwarfed by the population of the entire "city state," which was mostly rural.  Someone who wasn't paying much attention might just assume "city state" meant the city and draw no further distinction, and end up with bizarrely high numbers.

Hopefully we have someone here more educated that I who can correct my probable errors. :)

I would have to say that the aforementioned medieval demographics made easy guide is probably the best guide for this kind of thing. It is not exact as it details a later period though overall it is good for giving a general feel of things. Furthermore Polycarp has a big point in that city state is more than a city. Using my setting as an example, even in a place where inhabitants are forced into a certain area the city proper is likely only a fraction of the total city state population. You could have a total population of over 100 thousand and yet there might only be 15-30 thousand inside the city itself.

As to the original post a tribal based game is going to still have a great deal of society as hunter gatherers. The actual cities will be where people have learned how to make use of agriculture. I can see this as at a point in time where everyone is slowly beginning to shift from a nomadic way of life to the settled life centered on early farming.

There will likely be as you say, vast tracks of wilderness and many wandering tribal groups. Those groups who have began to explore agriculture will have the appearance of an early city. For the most part you will see small groups. Tribes that have set up camp permanently in small village like gatherings. Though this does not rule out large groups banding together and using agriculture to a great advantage. Namely the ability to remain in one spot and thus build up defensive fortifications. Small cities would spring up from this, likely defended by wooden palisades and simple stone walls. The area within the city probably containing a town hall for celebrations and meetings. It might also contain houses and work areas for those who maintain the town both in leadership positions as well as those that maintain it physically such as builders and doctors (the food being better handled allows people to specialize and also enables for trade and possibly early currency to take hold). Outside it would be everyone else, most of them growing crops and herding livestock and the like. This is where most of daily life takes place. The town functions as a place of leadership and meeting and provides a defendable position should enemy raiders attack. For the last reason, a town at high risk of attack would likely stockpile food and weapons and maintain a militia of sorts.

So there you have it, my take on the whole thing. From the feel I am getting of your setting I doubt cities would hold more than a few thousand (with those in the double digit thousands being the most powerful major groups). The total population of the cities though would be far higher. Indeed your largest cities could reach ten to twenty thousand, yet their total population could well approach 100 thousand (those smaller few hundred to few thousand population cities might have a total population of 1000-10000).

Good point - defining what constitutes the "city proper" is often rather murky unless you have a distinct walled enclosure to point to - and that physical definition only covers a certain period of time. I think that when we develop cities in our settings though we are often looking a bit past the walls to the interconnected fibers binding them to our settings. Still, discreet, large and in depth, developments such as Waterdeep (I used to have the full ten sheet map set) and Erewhon set a standard for urban setting development which may not be accurate in terms of comparative historical examples. I have always been very fascinated and intrigued by such Byzantine, labyrinthine urban settings as Ghormenghast, Sanctuary and Viriconium. Of the latter I have only read one story decades ago and the flavor was indelibly imprinted in my mind as the sort of city I wished to create - manifesting as the Masques, among other elements now, of Salis Freeport.