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What's your take on the State of the RPG Market

Started by Elemental_Elf, October 17, 2008, 08:42:50 PM

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Elemental_Elf

October 17, 2008, 08:42:50 PM Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 08:51:46 PM by brainface
In my area, 4e doesn't seem to be making as much head way as I'm sure WotC would have hoped. The core 3 rule books seem to sit on the shelves, collecting dust. In fact, from my perspective, the only 4E book that seems to sell is the Forgotten Realms Campaign Setting and that seems to be more out of intellectual curiosity than any intent to use it.

At the same time, White Wolf products, especially World of Darkness and Exalted seem to be selling like hot cakes. Every week I go to my LGS, their are new books to replace those that were sold. Also, Star Wars seems to be doing quite well, selling more and even faster than White Wolf.

Talking with my friends and acquaintances, it seems only a quarter of them really switched to 4E and most of those are not die hard lovers. Exalted has risen in popularity with many new groups and campaigns forming. As mentioned, Star Wars is also popular, with yours truly DMing a monthly campaign. 3.5 is also quite popular, spurred on by Paizo's latest beta test of Pathfinder, as well as many discounted d20 products.

So the question I ask you, my fellow CBGers, is this: What's your take on the state of the RPG market?

XXsiriusXX

#1
October 17, 2008, 10:48:16 PM
Now while I do not have much experience about the other systems that you have mentioned in your post, the consensus I have been getting about the 4ed switch is cost. My core group of gamers and others that I have talked too say that they have already invested a great deal of money (and time) into 3/3.5 books and do not want to have spend more money on the new system. I really can't blame them; I know that I don't want to spend another $200 just so I can have the current version of books I already own.

Elemental_Elf

#3
October 18, 2008, 12:32:56 AM
Quote from: XXsiriusXXNow while I do not have much experience about the other systems that you have mentioned in your post, the consensus I have been getting about the 4ed switch is cost. My core group of gamers and others that I have talked too say that they have already invested a great deal of money (and time) into 3/3.5 books and do not want to have spend more money on the new system. I really can't blame them; I know that I don't want to spend another $200 just so I can have the current version of books I already own.

The same happened with my group. We took a democratic vote, following a mini 4e campaign and by a vote of 4 to 6 we decided to stick with 3.5. Of the four that voted to stick, all but 1 had invested heavily ($500+) in 3/3.5 and the two that voted for change were much less invested (PHB + 1 Splat each). It really came down the the general consensus that even though we've played 3.x for a long time, we've barely scratched the surface.

Quote from: Ninja D!Around here it seems to be about the opposite of what Elemental_Elf describes.

Really? That's fascinating.

Ninja D!

#4
October 18, 2008, 04:55:23 AM
Quote from: Ninja D!Around here it seems to be about the opposite of what Elemental_Elf describes.

Really? That's fascinating.
[/quote]

I'll admit, I do not keep a close eye on stock and my local Barnes & Noble.  I do know, however, that they have gone through many copies of the 4E core books.  I also know that whenever I go there, the same White Wolf books always seem to be on the shelves, in the same places.  The 3.5 D&D books do seem to still be sell, though.

LordVreeg

#5
October 18, 2008, 09:06:52 AM
I polled the 2 guys I know who run gaming shops near the Home Office.  Strange responses, since gaming geeks, as we know, can't shut up once you get them going.  The numners in terms of games they know of and people they talk to is exactly split in half, half switching, half not.  Both of them know I have not played D&D for decades, both of them play in one D&D campaign, neither of them switched so far, though both have tried 4E.

Intersting finding #1---
The youngest and oldest gamers seem to be buying the books, while everyone in between (read that as 18-28) sems to be totally avoiding them.  Cost issues since that is the "Mommy doesn't pay my rent no more" age catagory?  Perhaps.

Interesting finding #2--
People who play multiple games seem more willing to switch, core D&D fans are more often the ones perhaps more invested in the old rules.

Both of the guys are pretty bright, and they agree with my analysis that in any 'upgrade', if any large percentage of the users/market resists the upgrade, you have had a failed process.  I could go into this further, but that seems to explain it pretty well.
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sparkletwist

#6
October 18, 2008, 02:10:07 PM
At the bookstore I usually go to, the 4E books were sitting on the shelf collecting dust. However, all the gaming books pretty much do. I don't think they sell many of them. So, perhaps it's not actually a fair analysis.

Xeviat

#7
October 18, 2008, 11:18:48 PM
At my FLGS, the 4E books sell out through preorders. It took me 2 weeks to get my Adventurer's Vault, and I only got it because the guys who run the store actually tracked down extra copies. Wizards is selling out of their first printings just from the initial store orders, but that could be because they've scaled back production.

Now, my FLGS is still selling 3.5 stuff, but they generally only have 2 or 3 copies of each of the 4E main books and that's because they make a constant attempt to keep them stockd.
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#8
October 20, 2008, 03:52:00 PM
Well, technically speaking, the most successful game in the RPG market is World of Warcraft. If you ask a random person on the street to name a game that geeks play, that's the one most likely to be mentioned. D&D supplanted war games, and World of Warcraft has now supplanted D&D. So in the end, D&D and 3rd-party, pen-and-paper games are largely irrelevant niche products.

As for D&D vs. other pen-and-paper systems, I'm not so sure that WotC is interested in focusing on pen-and-paper games anymore, except as a means of pushing digital content. Case in point: a description of an open Associate Game Designer position I heard about in a recent email from WotC states explicitly that "strong interest in and knowledge of digital gaming" is a preferred qualification. To me, that doesn't sound like something a company whose primary focus is pen-and-paper gaming would require of its potential employees.
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#9
October 20, 2008, 04:44:30 PM
Quote from: Epic MeepoWell, technically speaking, the most successful game in the RPG market is World of Warcraft. If you ask a random person on the street to name a game that geeks play, that's the one most likely to be mentioned. D&D supplanted war games, and World of Warcraft has now supplanted D&D. So in the end, D&D and 3rd-party, pen-and-paper games are largely irrelevant niche products.

As for D&D vs. other pen-and-paper systems, I'm not so sure that WotC is interested in focusing on pen-and-paper games anymore, except as a means of pushing digital content. Case in point: a description of an open Associate Game Designer position I heard about in a recent email from WotC states explicitly that "strong interest in and knowledge of digital gaming" is a preferred qualification. To me, that doesn't sound like something a company whose primary focus is pen-and-paper gaming would require of its potential employees.
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snakefing

#10
October 20, 2008, 06:44:10 PM
Surely they've made no secret of the fact that they are aiming for online gaming. But from what I've heard that would essentially be similar to the pen-and-paper version, but played with online tools.

On the one hand, it is (or at least could be) the same game. On the other hand, it will surely result in an emphasis in the things WotC tools provide (mostly, combat-related stuff, probably some avatar and image libraries too). Maybe morphing into some kind of fusion of the MUD and MMORPG worlds.
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Elemental_Elf

#11
October 20, 2008, 07:03:57 PM
From what I can tell the 'D&D Game Table' will most likely be something akin to Magic the Gathering Online. Its a place where interested parties can log on to and play their hobby of choice. Like MtGO, D&D Game Table will have a retail portion, in that one must purchase digital minis to use on the table. Essentially, the Game Table will be a digital version of D&D 4E, only with a tighter control over rules compared to normal D&D.

Honestly I believe WotC is desperately searching for a way to bolster their sales and open new markets. Unfortunately, instead of focusing on the basics and creating great game products, they branched out and were burned. Unfortunately, nothing about 4E has really gone WotC's way. They've had a hap hazard ad-hoc approach to their vision and their marketing of that vision. I'm sure WotC desperately wishes they could turn back the clock and start over but they can't. The real catcher is that they still have not changed their ways...

At any rate, I've seen a few new fliers for Pathfinder campaigns go up in and around my local LGS.


It has fractured the pen and paper RPG, at least in the short term and has  

sparkletwist

#12
October 20, 2008, 07:16:53 PM
One thing that something like WoW can't give that D&D can (and an online D&D potentially could, but with a good deal of work on the part of both DMs and WotC) is the more personal aspect of being able to put your gaming group into exactly the campaign world that you want to play.

If you play WoW and just want to hack n' slash, or even roleplay but aren't terribly concerned about the setting, it's great. Sometimes you have to deal with idiots or the like, but the "instanced" nature of WoW means (I assume, I haven't played it) that you can keep your groups small enough to keep some semblance of flavor intact. I also don't know if "roleplaying" is really even possible, or if you're best to just hack and slash and enjoy the scenery.

What it doesn't let you do-- and never will-- is what we do here. D&D does. An online D&D could, but it'd be harder, because all that campaign stuff would have to be put into the computer. Campaign design is hard enough, and that's just to design the stuff in a human-readable form... and humans tend to be a lot more flexible about how we can absorb information.

brainface

#13
October 20, 2008, 07:44:24 PM
Honestly I was hoping this thread would derail into discussions of muds. Really, I've never seen online roleplaying like can happen in a mud, and i don't think even pen & paper can handle trade skills as well as muds can.

Obviously I rarely get what I want around here :(

Really this post is just an excuse to applaud your avatar.
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